My Latest Gambling Addiction: Soccer
by admin | June 26, 2026 7:59 am
I went to Georgetown, then Austin, this week to visit friends and conduct some research at the Briscoe Center for American History on the UT campus, a repository I have been visiting for more than 40 years. My friend lives in Circleville, a few miles north of Taylor. We met at one of our favorite lunch spots and hung out there for a pleasant 2-plus hours. She noticed I was continually glancing at my phone but was too polite to ask why. So, I confessed. I was looking at alerts on the World Cup match between England and Ghana.
I joined Kalshi, a widely used predictive market, about a month ago by depositing $100. (I am not exactly a high roller.) Kalshi, and its larger competitor, Polymarket, are all the rage. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. Polymarket can’t legally be used in the United States, though it is seeking government approval. U.S. users of Polymarket have to get a VPN and trade with cryptocurrency. No thanks. That’s more brain power and trouble than I am willing to invest.
Most bets on Kalshi — and they are bets, despite what the company says — are on sports. I generally avoid betting on sporting events, save my annual bet for lunch with little brother Gregg on UT vs. A&M since they resumed playing football. (I am 2-0, just saying.) But Kalshi also lets one place bets on politics, culture, election results and all manner of arcane events. I bet $5 that Elon Musk would lose his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, and won $4.13. I bet U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie — a GOP critic of President Orange Skin — would win his primary in Kentucky. He lost, costing me $5. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer just resigned but three weeks later than I wagered. Another $10 gone. A few other political wagers won’t be decided until November. I never wager against someone I support politically, but if I don’t think they are going to win I take a pass.
Kalshi pays 3.25% interest on my cash, about what my savings account pays. With about $63 in cash as of this writing, the interest won’t buy me a cup of coffee, even at 7-11.
Then came the World Cup, which continues almost daily through mid-July. I know hardly anything about soccer. (The only pro team sport about which I know less is hockey.) I know Lionel Messi plays for Argentina, and that David
Beckham used to be the shizniz. That is about it. The goalie is the only position I can identify. Further, I didn’t know a soccer match is not simply 90 minutes. The referees keep up with time spent on injuries, etc. and add it at the end. The first time 90 minutes expired in the first game I watched and they kept playing. I was yelling at my phone. “Yo! This game is supposed to be over!”
Naturally, I decided to start betting through Kalshi on four or five World Cup matches each day. I use AI to help evaluate the upcoming matches, checked Kalshi’s predictive odds, and lay down the bets. This has greatly heightened my interest in soccer and the World Cup.
I started with a hot streak, winning 11 of my first 13 predictions. My greatest triumph to date is predicting Uruguay and Cape Verde would tie, which had long odds. My $5 wager garnered me $41.24. They were tied 2-2 as the match wound down. As I watched the updates on my phone, I couldn’t stand it anymore and watched the last 10 minutes of the matchon my iMac. “Please, nobody score,” I implored. Nobody scored. I let out a war whoop, scaring the dogs.
Let me assure anyone about to send me the toll-free number to Gamblers Anonymous that you can save your breath. The $100 I originally invested is my maximum investment in this relatively harmless diversion. The World Cup ends in just over three weeks. I plan to keep betting on matches until the end, occasionally actually watching at least the last 10 minutes of key games. Then it is back to wagering what remains on key political races in November and hanging back to see what happens.
In the meantime, I need to check the score of the Panama-Croatia match. I have $5 on those teams to tie.
They didn’t. Panama won. Dang.
Source URL: https://garyborders.com/pages/my-latest-gambling-addiction-soccer/